The purpose of this study was to compare 5 forecasting models: Ratio-to-Trend, Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing, Regression Dummy Variables, Theta, and Combined Forecasting. These methods were used for forecasting the number of Malaria patients in Phanom District, Surat Thani Province. The monthly time series data were collected from Surat Thani Provincial Health Office during January 2011 through December 2015 and divided into two groups. The first group of data covered the period of time from January 2011 to December 2014 and has been used for constructing the forecasting models. The secondary group of data covered the period of time from January 2015 to December 2015 and has been used for checking the accuracy of the forecasting models. The accuracy characteristics that we used were Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Square Error (MSE). The smallest values of MAD and MSE indicate the optimal forecasting model. Based on the study, the optimal model was found to be Combined Forecasting and the equation of the forecasting model was 1 2 ˆ 0.907 0.093 ; 1,2,…,12 t t t Y F F t where each 1t F and 2t F represents the single forecast at time t, from the Regression Dummy Variables model and Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing model, respectively.
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The Dean of the Faculty of Science and Technology's office is located in the Faculty of Science and Technology building. Surat Thani Rajabhat University 272 Moo 9, Khun Thale Subdistrict, Mueang District, Surat Thani Province 84100.
